Oil marketers have warned that the pump price of petrol in Nigeria could have soared to as much as ₦1,500 per litre if the country remained heavily reliant on imported refined petroleum products.

According to industry players, improvements in local refining capacity, particularly the operations of the Dangote Refinery, have helped cushion the impact of rising global oil prices and supply disruptions.

Marketers had earlier warned that petrol prices could climb to around N1,200 per litre due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has triggered volatility in global crude oil markets.

They explained that petrol prices in Nigeria are influenced by international crude oil prices, exchange rate pressures and rising logistics costs. Over the weekend, petrol was already selling for more than N1,000 per litre at several filling stations in Lagos, up from an earlier average of about N939 per litre.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has also noted that fluctuations in pump prices are a reflection of market forces following the deregulation of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Speaking on the situation, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said the current price trend is largely beyond the control of marketers.

He explained that although prices may continue to rise, the presence of local refining capacity has prevented an even steeper increase.

Ukadike said that if Nigeria were still importing most of its fuel, the current global pressures could have pushed petrol prices far higher, potentially reaching N1,500 per litre, while also creating shortages due to increased competition for supply.

Another industry operator, Anwalu Ahmed, said the current situation is the result of both global and domestic pressures affecting Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain.

According to him, tensions in the Middle East — one of the world’s most important oil-producing regions have increased fears of supply disruptions, causing traders to factor additional risks into crude oil and refined product prices.

He noted that even when actual supply has not been affected, market uncertainty alone can trigger immediate price increases.

Ahmed also pointed out that Nigeria still relies partly on imported refined products, which means higher landing costs whenever international crude prices rise.

Recent reports also indicated a temporary slowdown in petrol loading from the Dangote Refinery, raising concerns that pump prices could increase further as Brent crude trades above $100 per barrel.

Some filling stations in Lagos were also observed to have temporarily shut down sales as they awaited new pricing decisions.

Ukadike dismissed claims that marketers were exploiting old stock bought at lower prices, explaining that price adjustments in the oil and gas sector are directly tied to the cost of crude oil and exchange rate movements.

He added that global fuel prices, particularly in Europe, have risen sharply in recent weeks, further contributing to the pressure on Nigeria’s domestic market.